The 2016 US Presidential election is still 15 months away. The first debate amongst the Republican candidates will take place on August 6. To keep the size of the debate manageable, FOX News decided to limit it to the top ten candidates. In a previous article, Fox and Republicans, we made a quick prediction on who would be there.
How did we do?
The Republic of Haiti has experienced much instability and poverty throughout its 211 years of independence. From multiple coups to unstable empires to invasions to corrupt presidents for life, Haiti has had little opportunity for economic and political growth. The 2010 presidential election looked to be a turning point for Haiti. Polls were held. The popular Michel Martelly was elected. Hope prevailed.
Yet, how fair were the 2010 elections?
The Caribbean island nation of Grenada one of the Windward Islands, sits at the southern end of the Lesser Antilles. It received independence from the United Kingdom in 1974 and was invaded by the United States in 1983. Since then, it has achieved full democracy, if not a strong economy. An island nation, the global economic recession hit Grenada hard.
How did this affect the election?
On November 6, 2012, the American people went to the polls to elect their president. From the middle of June, we modeled the level of support for both main candidates. The model made several assumptions. The most important aspect of this model is that it used only polls and statistics. It made no Social Science modeling assumptions.
How well did it do, and what is the next step?
The November 2012 elections in the United States selected the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and the President. That was at the national level. In Puerto Rico, the election was less about federal seats and more about the future of Puerto Rico. For the fourteenth time since World War II (but only the first time in seven years), the residents of Puerto Rico had the opportunity to determine its future.
What did they decide?